Friday, October 24, 2008

a world gone crazy

As I read the news, I can't help but think that the world has gone crazy. However, I also can't help thinking that beneath all that is happening across the global financial markets there is logic. Logic in the sense that what is happening is, as cliche as it may sound it is appropriate for now, 'written in the stars.' Businesses are all about takings risks, calculated risks. Experts have written books, articles -- scholarly or otherwise, news features about risk management for no reason. Risk management had evolved and is continuing to evolve as one of the specialized knowledge in finance and finance management.
The problem with this logic, predestined or nor, is not further analysis can't seem to find a credible conclusion on when will the chaos end. Hence, governments and central banks are scrambling to form their own bailout/rescue packages. In our own region, papers and proposals are being produced right and left -- papers and proposals on how our governments and central banks should provide for the inevitability of our economies being affected by the U.S. economic recession.
Closer to our territory, financial analysts are predicting that the PSEi will slide as low as 1800. So there goes my condominium fund. Seriously, I think that 1800 is still a high mark. It is election year in the US, and drafting a more comprehensive and IMPRESSIVE bailout plan is close to impossible. Whoever wins needs time to know the ropes. This crisis will last as long as another year perhaps. A year is bad for our local market. It means that foreign capital will continue to be expatriated. Most likely the index can go as low as 1600-1700.
Individually, the sectors will do differently. Personally, I think the property sector will do better than the rest as OFW money continue to pour into the country with their higher peso-value.

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