Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Shameless promotions

Hi everyone,

In my quest for wealth and higher standard of living for myself and my family, I have decided to create a blog to document my journey in accumulating my first million. I admit that the blog http://myfirstmillionpesos.blogspot.com/ is a bit more serious than your typical entertainment blog, but then again wealth management is not something to joke about.
I hope that through http://myfirstmillionpesos.blogspot.com/ I can help educate people on the efficient and effective management of their wealth be it a million or just a few thousands. If a person can’t manage a few dollars, then how can that same person manage millions, right?

^^liza
http://myfirstmillionpesos.blogspot.com/

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Tuesday, October 28, 2008

A Good Research Paper

At the end of the day, no matter how much time and resource were devoted to a topic, the measure of whether a research paper is good is if it met its objectives. If the objective is to persuade readers to take a position, and if after reading the paper people did, then the research paper is good.

To meet its objectives a research paper should have a structure: an introduction or background of the topic, an analysis or discussion, and a conclusion or recommendation. The introduction or background should be able to give the uninitiated reader general information on the research topic. After reading the introduction, the average reader should have enough information to understand the analysis and conclusion sections of the research paper. Generally the background section should answer the following questions: What is the research paper all about? How did the research topic evolve? What is the research topic? Simply, the introduction “may discuss the history, status, and significance of the research” (Harper 325).

The analysis or discussion section of the paper must be able to give the readers a complete picture of the research topic. For example, if the purpose of the paper is to persuade readers to take a side in a debate, then the research paper should present both sides of the debate and not show bias towards any side. All sides should be presented to give the readers an unbiased opportunity to decide by themselves. Furthermore, if the background section was a general discussion on the research topic, then the analysis portion is more detailed and extensive. In this section the researcher tries to accomplish the objectives of the paper. He persuades by presenting the different viewpoints of the research topic.

The last portion of the research paper – the conclusion or recommendation section – although last is not the least important. As a matter of fact without this section the readers will have a difficulty synthesizing the information given in the previous sections of the paper. This section provides a closure in the sense that the researcher presents his opinions on the topic. Here the researcher integrates the information he gathered into his own opinion. Of course, he should also present a summary of the previous sections of the paper.

Lastly, for a research paper to be good the researcher should write clearly – concise, straight to the point and free from grammatical and typographical errors. The lack of grammatical and typographical errors shows the level of commitment of the researcher, that he had devoted considerable time and resources in the writing of the paper. Simply, the researcher should write with style (Lane 64).


Works Cited

Harper, F. “Writing Research Reports and Scholarly Manuscripts for Journal Publication: Pitfalls and Promises.” The Journal of Negro Education 75.3 (2008): 322-340.

Lane, J. “Making Sense: A Student's Guide to Research and Writing.” Journalism History 33.1 (2007): 64-65.


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Friday, October 24, 2008

a world gone crazy

As I read the news, I can't help but think that the world has gone crazy. However, I also can't help thinking that beneath all that is happening across the global financial markets there is logic. Logic in the sense that what is happening is, as cliche as it may sound it is appropriate for now, 'written in the stars.' Businesses are all about takings risks, calculated risks. Experts have written books, articles -- scholarly or otherwise, news features about risk management for no reason. Risk management had evolved and is continuing to evolve as one of the specialized knowledge in finance and finance management.
The problem with this logic, predestined or nor, is not further analysis can't seem to find a credible conclusion on when will the chaos end. Hence, governments and central banks are scrambling to form their own bailout/rescue packages. In our own region, papers and proposals are being produced right and left -- papers and proposals on how our governments and central banks should provide for the inevitability of our economies being affected by the U.S. economic recession.
Closer to our territory, financial analysts are predicting that the PSEi will slide as low as 1800. So there goes my condominium fund. Seriously, I think that 1800 is still a high mark. It is election year in the US, and drafting a more comprehensive and IMPRESSIVE bailout plan is close to impossible. Whoever wins needs time to know the ropes. This crisis will last as long as another year perhaps. A year is bad for our local market. It means that foreign capital will continue to be expatriated. Most likely the index can go as low as 1600-1700.
Individually, the sectors will do differently. Personally, I think the property sector will do better than the rest as OFW money continue to pour into the country with their higher peso-value.

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Thursday, October 23, 2008

financial news of the day

Here are the news yesterday that might have a lot of significance on what we do today
Source: Business World

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Are Real Options the best approach for valuation of a new high-tech venture?

For a long time, business schools have been teaching their students how to value different investment choices by using the net present value method (NPV) or the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). However, Gilbert said in his article “An Introduction to Real Options” that using either of these valuation methods is inappropriate for investment options with expected future cash flows characterized by significant uncertainties and wherein “management have the flexibility to respond to these uncertainties” (2004, p. x). He suggested the use of real options (RO) valuations for investments with these characteristics – these investments include, but not limited to, high-tech ventures.

First, Gilbert set the ground rules in order for an investment option to be considered a real option by listing two things that need to take place, at the same time, for real options to exist. These are:

  1. “There must be uncertainty in terms of future project cash flows, and
  2. “Management must have the flexibility to respond to this uncertainty as it evolves” (2004, p. x).

Boer defined real options by making an analogy between real options and financial options (2000). In a financial option

“one can purchase a call option on a common stock. One makes an initial investment to purchase the call. The option may be exercised at a pre-agreed "strike price," which involves a second, but optional investment. The stock is then delivered by the seller of the call and can be liquidated for cash” (Boer, 2000, p. x).

“For example, one might purchase a call on a stock selling at $100 for $5. If the stock rises to $110, one next exercises the call paying $100. If the stock is liquidated, the second transaction nets $10 and the entire transaction $5” (Boer, 2000, p. x).

Furthermore, Gilbert claims that “One of the key differences of the RO approach when compared to the NPV approach from a management perspective is that RO focuses attention on identifying sources of uncertainty and forces management to consider the question of ‘when does a project have sufficient flexibility?’” (Gilbert, 2004, p. x). Hence, the main point in using real options in valuing investments is the techniques used are directly based on the valuation techniques developed and used in financial options pricing. These valuation techniques include “analytical solutions (or approximations) such as the famous Black Scholes model as well as numerical methods such as the Monte Carlo and binomial lattice approaches” (Gilbert, 2004, p. x).

One of the key reasons why NPV, CAPM and other cash flow models have been becoming obsolete in valuing technology-based and related investments is the seemingly widening gap between the cash flow model valuation of a technology stock and the high premium prices. Technology stocks “that are losing money (and hence cannot be valued using price-earnings ratios or multiples of EBIT or EBITDA, and for which there are minimal physical assets, are being valued instead at huge multiples of revenues or projected revenues” (Boer, 2000, p. x). This is in complete contradiction to the principles underlying cash flow-based valuations. For example, in the computation of the net present value of an investment option the investment decision is usually based on how high the net preset value of the investment is which depends on how high the expected future cash flows are.

Another reason is pointed out by Smith and Amoruso (2006). High-tech ventures’ value is based on intangibles (Smith & Amoruso, 2006, p. x) and intangibles are rarely included in computing for a company’s net present value or discounted cash flows. However, with all its advantages as a valuation method, real options model does have its disadvantages. Tiwana, Wang, Keil and Ahluwalia argued that “little field research has been conducted to test whether [management] suffer from systematic biases” in using real options in valuing investments (2007, p. x). The authors, based on their study, concluded that management “associate real options with value only when a project's easily quantifiable benefits are low, but fail to do so when they are high” (Tiwana, Wang, KEil & Ahluwalia, 2007, p. x).

From my readings, I inferred that real options valuation is not a complete avowal from net present value – it is an extension. As a matter of fact, Gilbert says that “[the] valuation of real options starts with the identification of the traditional NPV model” (Gilbert, 2004, p. x) because the NPV model aids in the identification of uncertainties and in the valuation of the real options themselves. From this I can say that using real options is not so difficult because the underlying principles and valuation techniques of the theory are not too complex. From this simplicity, I agree that real options theory is one of the best approaches for valuing new high-tech ventures. However, I believe that this is not the real issue: the valuing technique and tool is not the end, but the means to an end. The real issue here is how the investor synchronizes his business objectives with the investment vehicles he chooses to invest in.
References

Boer, F. P. (2000). Valuation of technology using “real options.” Research Technology Management, 43 (4), 26-30.

Gilbert, E. (2004). An introduction to real options. Investment Analysts, 60 (49).

Smith, G. S. & Amoruso, A. J. (2006). Using real options to value losses from cyber attacks. Journal of Digital Asset Management, 2 (3/4), 150.

Tiwana, A., Wang, J., Keil, M. & Ahluwalia, P. (2007). The bounded rationality bias in managerial valuation of real options: Theory and evidence from IT projects. Decision Sciences, 38 (1), 157-181.

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financial news of the day

Here are the news yesterday that might have a lot of significance on what we do today
Source: Business World

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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

financial news of the day

Here are the news yesterday that might have a lot of significance on what we do today
Source: Business World

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taking a break from the credit crunch**

**source: http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/viewtopic.php?t=188615&sid=672812ba7f8d635ae5bf5e60a5890b8c
A trader: "This is worse than a divorce. I've lost half my net worth and
I still have a wife."

President Bush said clients shouldn't be concerned by all these bank
closings. If the bank is closed, you just use the ATM, he said.

George Bush said that he is saddened to hear about the demise of Lehman
brothers. His thoughts at this time go out to their mother as losing one
son is hard but losing two is a tragedy.

The problem with investment bank balance sheets is that on the left side
nothing is right and on the right side nothing is left.

In maths there are 30 billion prime numbers below 700 billion. The rest
are all subprime.

How do you define optimism? A banker who irons 5 shirts on a Sunday.

What do you call 12 investment bankers at the bottom of the ocean? A
good start.

Why are all MBAs going back to school? To ask for their money back.

For Geography students: What's the capital of Iceland ? Answer: About
Three Pounds Fifty...

If you want to gamble, go to Las Vegas . If you want to trade in
derivatives, God bless you.

Whats the difference between a guy who just lost everything in Vegas and
an investment banker? A tie.

Whats the difference between a bond and a bond trader? A bond matures.

Lehman have changed their recommendation on Lehman from hold to sell.

Forty years ago I sold fifty shares of my company stock and had enough
money to purchase a brand-new 1967 Ford pickup. Last week, I checked it
out, and if I sold another fifty shares, Id have enough money to buy a
1967 Ford pickup. So, the market has stabilized.





Tax System Explained in Beer by David R. Kamerschen, Ph.D.Professor of Economics University of Georgia**

**this man is a genius.

Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100.

If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this... The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.

The fifth would pay $1.

The sixth would pay $3.

The seventh would pay $7.

The eighth would pay $12.

The ninth would pay $18.

The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.

So, that's what they decided to do. The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve. 'Since you are all such good customers,' he said, 'I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20. 'Drinks for the ten now cost just $80. The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men - the paying customers?

How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his fair share?

They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.

And so the fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).

The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings) .

The seventh now pay $5 instead of $7 (28%savings) .

The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).

The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 ( 22% savings).

The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).

Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.

'I only got a dollar out of the $20,'declared the sixth man.

He pointed to the tenth man,' but he got $10!''Yeah, that's right,' exclaimed the fifth man.

'I only saved a dollar, too.. It's unfair that he got ten times more than I!''That's true!!' shouted the seventh man.

'Why should he get $10 back when I got only two?

The wealthy get all the breaks!

''Wait a minute,' yelled the first four men in unison. 'We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!'

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up. The next night the Tenth man didn't show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!

And that, boys and girls, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction.

Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore.

In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is
somewhat friendlier.






Understanding the Stock Market: A monkey's guide to short selling**


**I got this email from a friend and I thought that it is pretty fun. I hope you enjoy it too:
  • stock markets in monkey terms
  • short selling in monkey term ;-P

Once upon a time, in a village, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each. Seeing that there were plenty of many monkeys around, the villagers went out to the forest, and started catching them. The man bought thousands at $10. As supplies of monkeys started to diminish, the villagers ceased their efforts. The man then announced he would now buy at $20. So the villagers renewed their efforts and started catching monkeys again. Soon the supply of monkeys diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The man increased his offer to $25 and the supply of monkeys diminished to the extent that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch one. But the man now announced he would buy monkeys at $50! However, since he had to go to the city on business, his assistant would now buy on his behalf. In the absence of the man, the assistant said to the villagers: "Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at $35 and when the man returns from the city, you can sell them to him for $50 each." The villagers thought that was a great idea so they collected all their savings and bought all the monkeys. They never saw the man nor his assistant again. But they had plenty of monkeys. Now you have a better understanding of how the stock market works.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

UP wins ICFC

I hate gloating, but by gad! My school won this year after being beaten by the Ateneo de Manila University last year. So indulge me. It's unprofessional, but my blood runs maroon.

10th FINEX Inter-Collegiate Finance Competition
This competition is one of the toughest and most anticipated in the Philippines and now it's becoming the most anticipated in the region as well. What with the growing number of foreign schools that are invited each year.
This year, a friend I met in a Conference I attended in Malaysia, competed. He's part of the team from the Assumption University in Thailand.
A few of the participants from the foreign schools have passed their CFA Level 1 last June. Interestingly, the team from the University of the Philippines - Diliman beat them all.

UPCBA Team
The 5 members of the team that beat them all were all my students once. They are truly great kids - not only intelligent, but with great attitude towards life. I suppose winning this tough competition says a lot about the tenacity of these kids. What more can I say about them, right?




Wednesday, October 15, 2008

8th Annual Pacific Region Investment Conference

The 8th Annual Pacific Region Investment Conference of the Asia Pacific Association for Fiduciary Studies was held on October 9-10 at the Renaissance New World Hotel in Makati City, Philippines.
It was an affair worth the just P2,500 (about U$50) registration fee that local participants were asked to pay. I thought it was so cheap -- think about all the knowledge I can learn* and apply in managing my wealth. Yay!

Relevant Topics
It was a very informative 2-day affair. The more interesting topics were:
*Power Plays: Opportunities in Alternative Energy
*Personal Equity and Retirement Account Act (PERA)
*Will Global Economic and Financial Connectivity Lead to a Global Slump
*How to Find Opportunities Distressed Asian Stock Markets
What I liked most was Power Plays and Global Economic.
Power Plays
made alternative energy such as wind and solar more interesting. I did some work with a government owned corporation which is involved in the development and promotion of alternative energy in the Philippines. They have a photovoltaic cell project. Power Plays' conclusion is that the solar energy technologies are still developing. hence, the company who will develop the more efficient PV cell will own the market.
Global Economic on the other hand was an analysis of the roots and causes of the ongoing financial crisis the world has never seen and experienced. The speaker, who is a genius in my opinion, communicated with the audience so well I wouldn't mind hearing him speak again.

International Speakers
The most noted speaker was Marc Faber, Ph.D. I am not the most qualified person to describe him so I am just quote what the Conference's brochure wrote:
Dr. Marc Faber studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics, magna cum laude
Ok, so need I say more?

Interesting Participants
I also met a lot of people. I even met 2 or 3 who came from a country I have never heard of. I was assured though that it is a beautiful country, as beautiful as ours.

Fun Activities
The post lecture activities are fun, too! There was a cocktail party where everyone mingled - participants with speakers, speakers with participants, participants with fellows.

I am planning to attend next year's conference. I am sure it will be as interesting as this year. By the way, last year was held in Guam.

*Please refer to my post Learn Something New




Tuesday, October 14, 2008

it's a jungle out there (an MRT commuter's trick)

it's a jungle out there -- not with wild animals, but with people! What I mean is commuting in an overcrowded city such as Manila and Kuala Lumpur is like going to the jungle ==> you will never know what to expect.

<== See the picture on the left for instance.

It was taken sometime in August at Kuala Lumpur's monorail (during rush hour). There I was in Bukit Bintang waiting for the monorail to take me to KL Central, when the train did arrive, commuters who seconds before were peacefully queueing surged into the train. I was so astounded I stepped back & observed.
Several people wanted so much to catch that train that the doors of the train (as shown in the picture) broke down -- they won't open anymore when the guards, yes they do have guards like we do here in Manila, tried to open them so that they can ask some of the passengers to get down the train since it can't accommodate everyone.


I was reminded of this event yesterday [October 8, 2009] when I took the MRT going home. Whenever I board the MRT at Buendia Station (home means getting off at Cubao Station), I always take the south bound train and go alllllllllllllllll the way UP to Taft Station, by doing this I always have a seat which is a relief considering the 20 minutes ride home.
Such was my life when I was still working in Makati City few years back. Now, I thank God everyday that I only do MRT round trips once in a while -- only when I have meeting in Makati.
For fellow commuters, good luck - I hope you can get into the first train that arrives during rush hours. I do hate waiting for the train where I can finally squeeze in my 46 kilo body. ;-)
I know. Been there, done that.
Ciao.

Learning Something New






(I wrote this post on October 9, 2008)

I have always prided my self of seeking new knowledge especially on how to manage wealth & how to accumulate more wealth responsibly. Yesterday, I learned an interesting and very practical concept on wealth management. It was so simple, it doesn't make sense if you don't apply it.
Yesterday, I attended the Module 1 of www.createabundance2020.com's wealth management course at Starbucks Leviste, Salcedo Village, Makati City. It was a vert simple course, simple yet VERY effective. Effective because 3 hours after it I was applying what I've learned.

What I learned is to divide OR partition my income into its different purposes. For example (this was the example used in the Module):
Table 1: Money Jars

Purpose

Abbreviation

Percentage of Income

Financial Freedom Account

FFA

10%

Necessities*

NEC

55%

Play

Play

10%

Education

Educ

10%

Give*

Give

5%

Long Term Savings

LTSS

10%


* If you want to give 10%, then NEC becomes 50%

I modified this model a bit to suit my needs & circumstances. Here's what I came up:
Table 2: My Money Jars

What I did is deducted 5% from NEC and another 5% from Play and established another LTSS. This means that I now have 2 LTSS accounts: 1 for a new car [mine is sooo old] and the other is for my mother's house (a gift for her from my brother and me).
Now, FFA money is to be used for funding businesses and investments only. As you might have guessed, this fund will help me in creating multiple streams of income for me to achieve my yearly income without so much as breaking a sweat. The other accounts are more or less explanatory [you may always email me for questions: amgaspar20@yahoo.com]
So, this coming Monday [November 13]** I will be opening additional accounts with BPI. One account for each of the above (I already have existing accounts with the bank so NOW I only need 4 more). I believe that having an account for each of the above will SIGNIFICANTLY help me in managing my income and wealth [no matter how small that maybe compared to Bill Gates', but if I can't manage such net worth, how do you think I can when I'm as rich as Croesus?].
So how do I intend to use the percentages presented in Table 2? For example, I just received P11,900 for a work I did. I immediately electronically transferred 10% of it to my LTSS-House account (it was an existing account).
I am so excited. I know this will help me be more disciplined when it comes to managing my income & money. Yay! The world is really wonderful.

**I actually opened the accounts today, November 14.

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